Opportunities for Cooperative Water Resources Development on the Eastern Nile: Risks and Rewards. Final Report.

This document is an independent report of the JMP scoping study team to the Eastern Nile Council of Ministers (ENCOM) commissioned by the World Bank. The technical analysis presented in the report attempted: to explore the Eastern Nile as a river system shared by three countries; and to identify both the physical potential of the river system to yield opportunities for cooperative development and the risks of cooperation and non-cooperation. For the study, a computer simulation model of the river basin (modified DST/Decision Support Tool) was deployed that incorporates information about the countries’ water resources infrastructure, current water uses, and existing development plans. Activities involved in analyzing the most promising EN sub-basin for a first set of investments along the lines of those of the broad JMP concept: the Abay-Blue Nile sub-basin in Ethiopia offered the best opportunity for such investments (provides multi-purpose benefits; spurs benefits to all riparian states; and causes no regrets). Subsequent analytical work focused on alternative scenarios for development in the Abay-Blue Nile sub-basin.