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Calibration and Training for Flood Forecasting Model in Sudan
Date Issued
2009
Status
Open Access
Abstract
The Calibration and Training for Flood Forecasting Model in Sudan was mainly to develop, install, calibrate, and validate an early warning system based on flood routing methodologies in the Blue and Main Nile reaches from Deim to Dongoloa, as well as conducting training within the National Forecast Center in the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources.
The early warning system developed has a rainfall-runoff modeling component and a hydraulic/hydrologic routing component. The rainfall runoff model used is the HEC-HMS that simulates surface and subsurface hydrological processes within the Blue Nile catchment and generates river flow at the boarder station of Eddeim. The hydraulic routing component is based on HEC-RASÂ model that was calibrated for the Blue Nile reach between Eddeim and Khartoum using data on channel geometry, reservoir characteristics and 26 years of flow and water level data at Eddeim and Khartoum covering the period 1980-2005.
A separate component based on hydrologic routing using black box model, Linear Perturbation Model (LPM) is also incorporated to give another alternative that can either be used for comparison purpose or in case of lack of reliable geometric data. LPM has the capabilities of single input-single output form and multiple input-single output form. The LPM has been applied for real time forecasting at Tamaniat and Dongola stations on the main Nile based on upstream flows at all major tributaries.
The early warning system developed has a rainfall-runoff modeling component and a hydraulic/hydrologic routing component. The rainfall runoff model used is the HEC-HMS that simulates surface and subsurface hydrological processes within the Blue Nile catchment and generates river flow at the boarder station of Eddeim. The hydraulic routing component is based on HEC-RASÂ model that was calibrated for the Blue Nile reach between Eddeim and Khartoum using data on channel geometry, reservoir characteristics and 26 years of flow and water level data at Eddeim and Khartoum covering the period 1980-2005.
A separate component based on hydrologic routing using black box model, Linear Perturbation Model (LPM) is also incorporated to give another alternative that can either be used for comparison purpose or in case of lack of reliable geometric data. LPM has the capabilities of single input-single output form and multiple input-single output form. The LPM has been applied for real time forecasting at Tamaniat and Dongola stations on the main Nile based on upstream flows at all major tributaries.