Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Studies(FPEW)

The Calibration and Training for Flood Forecasting Model in Sudan was mainly to develop, install, calibrate, and validate an early warning system based on flood routing methodologies in the Blue and Main Nile reaches from Deim to Dongoloa, as well as conducting training within the National Forecast Center in the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources. The early warning system developed has a rainfall-runoff modeling component and a hydraulic/hydrologic routing component. The rainfall runoff model used is the HEC-HMS that simulates surface and subsurface hydrological processes within the Blue Nile catchment and generates river flow at the boarder station of Eddeim. The hydraulic routing component is based on HEC-RAS model that was calibrated for the Blue Nile reach between Eddeim and Khartoum using data on channel geometry, reservoir characteristics and 26 years of flow and water level data at Eddeim and Khartoum covering the period 1980-2005. A separate component based on hydrologic routing using black box model, Linear Perturbation Model (LPM) is also incorporated to give another alternative that can either be used for comparison purpose or in case of lack of reliable geometric data. LPM has the capabilities of single input-single output form and multiple input-single output form. The LPM has been applied for real time forecasting at Tamaniat and Dongola stations on the main Nile based on upstream flows at all major tributaries.

The primary intent of the flood forecasting model development was to assist the Flood Forecasting Center (FFC) established under the Ministry of Water Resources of Energy of Ethiopia to select/develop, install, calibrate, and validate a flood forecasting and an early warning system based on rainfall runoff modeling and flood routing methodologies in the Lake Tana catchment, as well as conducting training within the National flood Forecasting Center in the Ministry. All the documents listed above are created in the course of the flood forecasting model development undertakings. The flood forecasting modeling development includes: ·      Required input variables and parameters to the hydrological models set for Gummara, Rib, Megech and Dirma catchments ·      Easy to use integrated flood forecasting system which gives flood alert level for 72 hours ahead ·      HEC-HMS model configured as catchment based semi-distributed hydrologic model type intended to represent the spatial variation of the rainfall and the proposed hydraulic facilities such as storage dam. ·      Hydraulic configuration and modeling using HEC-RAS The model input consists of data from three existing rainfall stations and flow data from corresponding gauging stations at Gummara, Ribb, Megech and Dirma for calibration and verification of the model.

The community action plans prepared for four pilot communities (Wagettera, Nabega, Gendawuha and  Ttez Amba) around flood affected communities in the Fogera Floodplain drawn based on participatory consultative planning process. The major activities identified and highlighted in the plan of action include: * Enhancing Community Participation and Use of Early Warning System * Reduce the impact of physical isolation due to floods. * Enhance community awareness and build capacity of community to prepare for and manage the incidence of floods.

The community action plans prepared for four pilot communities (Toti Island, Wawsi, Elabka and Sidon) in the Blue and Main Nile Floodplain drawn based on participatory consultative planning process. The major activities identified and highlighted in the plan of action include: * Enhancing Community Participation and Use of Early Warning System * Reduce the impact of physical isolation due to floods. * Upgrade community preparedness and response capabilities. * Enhance community awareness and build capacity of community to prepare for and manage the incidence of floods.

The Design of an Upgraded Data Acquisition, Communication and Flood Forecasting Systems in the EN countries aimed at the designing of upgrade of the real time data acquisition, Flood Forecasting, and Communication capacity within the National Flood Forecasting Centers (NFC) of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.  It includes software and hardware aspects for real time data acquisition and transmission, the types of forecast information to be generated and the communication systems, and also to link ENTRO to the national forecasting centers. ENTRO is to provide technical back-stopping for NFCs such as data sharing, training, etc. The documents presented here provide details on ·      Background and context of the project ·      Results of the gap analysis for each country in flood forecasting and hydro-meteorological  network system ·      Overview of the individual components that can be used for a real-time data collection network ·      Recommendations for real time data collection networks in Ethiopia and Sudan ·      Design for a data processing and storage and a data communication system. ·      Procurement plan along with specifications, demo expression of interest  and demo terms of reference

The Enhancement to Nile Forecasting System Satellite Precipitation Estimation and Hydrological Models in National Forecast Centre in Egypt aims to improve the capabilities of the existing Nile Forecasting System (NFS) used by the Nile Forecasting Centre (NFC) of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), Egypt. The NFS uses a gridded distributed hydrological model to monitor, simulate and forecast the entire Nile Basin and to determine flows particularly at Dongala, the inflow to Lake Nasser. The model is driven using satellite-derived precipitation estimates. An Extended Stream flow Prediction (ESP) procedure uses historical years as proxies for possible future precipitation to provide hydrological forecasts with an effective window of up to three months. The major outcomes this effort include: ·         Satellite precipitation monitoring: an enhanced rainfall estimation algorithm to take advantage of new satellite data. ·         Hydro-meteorological database: enhanced import-export and data display and manipulation facilities. ·         Hydrological models: automatic calibration tool and enhanced model configuration capabilities. ·         Hydrological forecasting: an improved model of hydrological forecast.

The report presents the result of the study on the assessment of existing voluntary resettlement policy in Sudan, resettlement policy guidelines and operational principles and policy framework and implementation mechanisms.

The main purpose of this study was to carry systematic inter-comparison of the rainfall simulations produced by numerical weather predication models ( Eta ) used in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in order to achieve uniform testing and improvement of model’s performance. The emphasis is on the general process of how to test and improve a numerical rainfall prediction model, rather than the specifics of this Eta model.

This report presents synthesis work of the flood compilations and it is aimed at providing one comprehensive view of the flood within the region from regional perspective. In general, the report presents the following major information: · Flooding situations and flood damages in the EN countries mainly during the 2006 flood season, · Description and location of flood prone areas, · Rainfall analysis of key areas of the EN sub-basins and Nile Forecasting Analysis, · Hydrologic analysis, · Flood affected sites and damage analysis during the 2006

The report presents the result of flood early warning survey for the 2009 flood season in Sudan to make use of the lessons learnt for a sustainable flood early warning system. The report also presents challenges and opportunities of the currently functioning flood early warning system in the country and provides recommendations on the improvement.

The purpose of this manual is to present basic principles used in the design and construction of flood protection embankments and associated structures in Ethiopia. The manual applies to all engineers and institutions having responsibility for designing and constructing flood protection works. The manual identifies a set of design standards and procedures to be used for the planning, design, construction and maintenance of flood protection embankment mainly associated with irrigation and land development projects in flood plain areas. The manual is general in nature and not intended as step by step design procedures and needs the judgment of the design engineer on a particular project.

The purpose of this manual is to present basic principles used in the design and construction of flood protection embankments and associated structures in Sudan. The manual applies to all engineers and institutions having responsibility for designing and constructing flood protection works. The manual identifies a set of design standards and procedures to be used for the planning, design, construction and maintenance of flood protection embankment mainly associated with irrigation and land development projects in flood plain areas. The manual is general in nature and not intended as step by step design procedures and needs the judgment of the design engineer on a particular project.

This PIP describes the components, tasks and activities of the Project and provides a budget, financial and economic analyses, and a financing plan for Phase II Project implementation.  It discusses risks associated with Project implementation, and appropriate management measures.  Implementation and institutional arrangements are included, with plans and schedule for implementation, plans for procurement and financial management, and a disbursement schedule.  A framework for monitoring and evaluation is provided.  There is a summary of consultations, and a proposed Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) and a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) are included consistent with World Bank requirements.

This PIP describes the components, tasks and activities of the Project and provides a budget, financial and economic analyses, and a financing plan for Phase II Project implementation It discusses risks associated with Project implementation, and appropriate management measures Implementation and institutional arrangements are included, with plans and schedule for implementation, plans for procurement and financial management, and a disbursement schedule.A framework for monitoring and evaluation is provided. There is a summary of consultations, and a proposed Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) and a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) are included consistent with World Bank requirements.

The flood risk mapping documents for pilot areas surrounding Lake Tana in Ethiopia presented here are the results of multi-disciplinary study that include products from topographic data collection and surveying, terrain modeling, hydrologic analysis, hydraulic modeling and analysis, flood hazard mapping, economic data collection and damage analysis, and vulnerability and risk assessment. The pilot areas considered were: * Gumara and Ribb Rivers in the Fogera floodplain * Megech and Dirma Rivers in the Dembiya floodplain The maps developed as a result of this study convey the most basic information about the general vicinity in which flooding can be expected with varying frequencies. Local communities can make immediate use of these maps to identify areas of focus for flood protection, preparedness, warning, and future development guidelines. A flood extent map can be a valuable aid in communicating flood risk to local populations as part of education and outreach programs to encourage appropriate response.

The flood risk mapping documents for pilot areas along the Blue Nile River in Sudan presented here are the results of multi-disciplinary study that include products from topographic data collection and surveying, terrain modeling, hydrologic analysis, hydraulic modeling and analysis, flood hazard mapping, economic data collection and damage analysis, and vulnerability and risk assessment. The pilot areas considered were: * Khartoum City, covering part of Khartoum City along the Blue Nile and the proposed development area at Soba * Hasahisa and Wad Medani at the River Rahad junction * Singa City * Roseires Dam The maps developed as a result of this study convey the most basic information about the general vicinity in which flooding can be expected with varying frequencies. Local communities can make immediate use of these maps to identify areas of focus for flood protection, preparedness, warning, and future development guidelines. A flood extent map can be a valuable aid in communicating flood risk to local populations as part of education and outreach programs to encourage appropriate response.

The report presents preliminary analysis on the flooding extent and coping mechanisms in the Eastern Nile region. Among others, the report outlines the following:  Inventory of available information on flooding extents in the EN countries and existing coping mechanisms, Review of available documentation on flooding and related topics,  Compiled findings in the form of a background report. Country level background information included in the report on the extent of flooding problems in each EN country and existing coping mechanisms were compiled by the respective national flood coordinators.

The study tour reports provide information about areas, institutions, and communities visited in Bangladesh and India, and insights of the experiences of the countries related to flood management at national, local and community levels.

Following the development of flood forecasting model at the National Flood Forecasting center of the Ministry of Water Resources and Energy, there was a need to operationalize and test the model during the 2010 flood season. To this end, the FPEW I supported the National Flood Forecasting Centre of Ethiopia in operating the flood forecasting model and delivering appropriate early warning messages to the concerned authorities and communities in the flood affected areas around Lake Tana area. Operationalizaiton of the flood forecasting model involved linking the flood forecasting model developed by Addis Ababa University and models used in the flood risk mapping developed by Riverside Technology, Inc. The flood forecasting system integrated the Rainfall forecasting model (using ETA), the hydrological model (HEC-HMS), the hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) and the flood plain mapping model (HEC-GeoRAS).

This documents had been prepared in an effort to evaluate the effectiveness of the FPEW I interventions during the 2010 flood season in terms of early warning communication and training of communities and management interventions at the community level. The final document provides : * An assessment result on the effectiveness of the newly developed flood early warning system at community, kebele, district and regional level. * An assessment of community and institutional response to the flood, in particular the effectiveness of the pilot interventions financed through FPEW I (e.g. mobile phones, temporary shelter, color poles, escape routes, risk mapping etc.) * Lessons learned from the performance and short comings of the FPEW I early warning and flood management system and recommendations for the scaling up in FPEW II.